Commodity outlook: Natural gas gains; here's how others may fare

NEW DELHI: Barring zinc and lead, all metal, bullion and energy counters were trading with gains on Monday ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

Gold was up 0.21 per cent while silver added 0.39 per cent. In the base metal block, barring zinc and lead, all counters rose with copper gaining the most at 0.30 per cent. Crude oil was up 0.51 per cent and its peer natural gas was up 2.32 per cent.

“Concerns over bleak global demand and a slower than expected economic recovery might push crude prices lower. However, storm hitting US gulf production is expected to limit the loss for crude. Geopolitical tension between the middle east countries may support the crude oil prices and short covering also may be seen in crude oil prices from the lower levels. We are recommending buying crude oil on a dip. should buy crude oil at Rs 2,720, with the stop loss of Rs 2,660, for the target of Rs 2,830,” said Anuj Gupta , DVP- Commodities and Currencies Research, Angel Broking.

NCDEX Agridex, an agricultural futures index that tracks the performance of the ten liquid commodities, was up 0.22 per cent or 2.50 points at 1,138.85 led by gains in refined soya oil and soy bean.

Here is how SMC Global expects commodities to fare today:

Bullion: Bullion counters may trade with bullish bias where gold may test Rs 51,800 and take support near Rs 50,700 while silver may test Rs 68,700 and take support near Rs 67,200.

Base metals: Base metals may trade sideways with a bullish bias. Copper can move towards 529 and take support near Rs 519. Zinc may move towards Rs 194 and take support near Rs 189. Lead can move towards Rs 149 while taking support near Rs 146. Nickel trade bullish bias where it may take support near Rs 1,092 and resistance near Rs 1,129. Aluminum may move towards Rs 146 while taking support near Rs 143.

Energy: Crude oil may trade sideways with a bearish bias where it may take support near Rs 2,610 and resistance is seen near Rs 2,830. Natural gas may again witness selling pressure where resistance is seen near Rs 174 and support near Rs 162.

Spices: Turmeric futures (October) has been taking support around Rs 5,700 since past two months. Eyeing this growing export scenario, we can see an upside level of Rs 6,200-6,300 in days to come. The overall trend of jeera futures is bearish and hence in days to come, it shall witness selling with every short covering. The October contract is expected to witness some more correction towards Rs 13,800, facing resistance near Rs 14,000. Dhaniya futures (October) is expected to trade on a positive note in the range of Rs 6,700-6,800.

Oilseeds: Soybean futures (October) is expected to trade sideways in the range of Rs 3,850-3,950. The uptrend of mustard futures (October) is expected to extend till Rs 5,400-5,450. Soy oil (October) is expected to hover sideways in the range of Rs 895-905 and CPO (Sept) may witness another consolidation in the range of Rs 763-770.

Other commodities: Cotton futures (Oct) is likely to trade steady in the range of Rs 17,800-18,000. Last week, Chana futures (October) has made a 52-week high at Rs 5,245 due to depleting procured stock with Nafed and this bullishness shall continue towards Rs 5,350- 5,400. Lower level buying can be seen in guar seed futures (Oct) around Rs 3,970 eyeing an upside of Rs 4,050, and guar gum futures (Oct) may remain stable in the range of Rs 6,100-6,200.