Nifty could cross 12,200 before poll results: Analysts

Traders are betting on the Nifty surging by as much as 3 per cent before the general election results are out on Thursday after exit polls predicted a second term for the Bharatiya Janata Partyled coalition. Gains of about 1.4 per cent will catapult the benchmark index beyond the psychological milestone of 12,000.

The 12200 and 12500 calls strike saw the highest addition in open interests among call options on Monday, as the exit polls predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to repeat its landslide victory of 2014 in this year's polls. When traders buy call options, they are betting on the index or stock to go up. The Nifty ended up 3.7 per cent at 11,828.25 on Monday – ending at a record close and posting its biggest single-day gain in nearly six years.

"The market has scope to reach these levels based on the kind of movement we have seen in the last two days. Going by the speed at which the market is moving, it could touch 12,200 in the next two days," said Rohit Srivastava, fund manager-PMS at BNP Paribasowned Sharekhan.

The 12200 call option added 2.8 lakh shares in open interest while the 12500 strike added 4.2 lakh shares in open interest. The 12000 strike, which holds the highest OI among call options, shed 201,600 shares in open interest.

“The market is going up in anticipation of the outcome. The news should be discounted by the time the actual outcome is announced," said Srivastava.

Chandan Taparia, derivative analyst at Motilal Oswal, said the strength in the market is giving confidence to investors that the index will head to 12,200-12,250 levels.

The Nifty logged its worst losing streak in eight years and Sensex posted its biggest losing streak since February between April 30 and May 13. The Nifty touched a low of 11,108.30 on May 14. Confidence returned to the market last Thursday as exit polls drew near, and the Nifty has gained 6 per cent in the last three sessions.

“The 12000 call option has held the highest open interest among calls since the beginning of the series, but as the Nifty has now come close to 12,000, positions are being shifted higher to 12,200 and 12,500. Lower volatility after exit polls is also making market participants optimistic," said Amit Gupta, head of derivatives at ICICIdirect.

India VIX has slumped 19 per cent to 23.7 from the near four-year high of 29.3 hit on May 16. Gupta of ICICIdirect does not rule out profit booking after the final poll verdict.