13 states and 2 UTs achieve population replacement rate

The fertility rates in 13 states and two Union Territories (UTs), including Delhi, have reached the levels needed to maintain population numbers, latest figures show.

According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) 2019, released by the Registrar General of India this month, the 13 states and two UTs have attained the replacement total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 and below. Replacement TFR (2.1 births per woman) is an indicator where a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration.

As per SRS, India's national TFR has come down to 2.1 in 2019 after being stable at 2.2 for 2017 and 2018.

Among the 28 states and eight UTs, replacement level TFR has been reported by Andhra Pradesh (1.5), Delhi (1.5), J&K (1.5), Punjab (1.5), TN (1.5), West Bengal (1.5) , Himachal Pradesh (1.6), Kerala (1.6), Maharashtra (1.6), Telangana (1.6), Karnataka (1.7), Odisha (1.8) Uttarakhand (1.9), Gujarat (2.1) and Haryana (2.1).

SRS is the largest demographic survey mandated to provide annual estimates of fertility as well as mortality indicators at the state and national level. As per SRS 2019, urban India had a TFR of 1.7 while rural India had a TFR of 2.3.

According to a UN World population policy, 2021, India is at replacement level TFR (2.1) where a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next. The UN report further notes, "Covid-19 pandemic and resulting economic and social changes have affected fertility levels in many countries, but this impact may be short-lived. It is expected that fertility fluctuations from 2021 to 2023 will be relatively minor and that fertility may return to pre-pandemic levels by around 2025."

The SRS survey said, "Bihar has reported the highest TFR (3.1), while Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, J&K, Punjab, TN and West Bengal have reported the lowest TFR (1.5). Similarly, the infant mortality rate (IMR) also registered a 2-point decline to 30 in 2019 from 32 in 2018 at the national level, as per SRS 2019.