Don’t dismantle special health infra as third Covid wave inevitable: Experts’ advice to govt

A third wave of Covid-19 is inevitable and the Centre should not dismantle special health infrastructure created for the second wave, leading epidemiologists and top doctors have said amid reports that the daily new cases were declining rapidly. Taking a cue from how the virus progressed in other countries and the ‘Spanish flu’s trajectory,’ experts said there could be a third wave by the yearend.
“It is not a question of whether but when. The US, UK, Italy and Japan had four waves. The virus will also replicate like that in India. But in the US and the UK, their third wave was bigger than the second, mostly because they had not started vaccination by then,” Public Health Foundation of India’s epidemiology chief Giridhar R Babu told ET.

Doctors link the third wave to the assumption that the majority of the population has been unaffected by the second wave. “A third wave is very likely as there is a large section of vulnerable population which hasn’t been exposed to the virus, especially children and rural population. We will probably see a third wave in another 4-6 months,” said Medanta Liver Transplant Institute chairman Arvinder Soin, the lead investigator in Indian randomised control trial on Tocilizumab in Covid-19.

“We have made a module for Covid-19 management in children. Over the last one month, training modules are being conducted across hospitals in India to ensure preparedness for a considerable number of paediatric cases in the third wave,” Indian Academy of Paediatrics Covid-19 task force member Shyam Kukreja told ET. Kukreja, who heads the paediatrics department at Max Super Specialty hospital said his hospital has started training staff posted in emergency wards to handle paediatric cases. Fortis group has also made protocols for training staff to handle infected children.

The key to handling the third wave, experts feel, would be in maintaining the special infrastructure created during the second wave. “The government would have to strike a balance. Special hospitals created for Covid-19 should not be shut down. The government can probably scale them down over a period, divert manpower to where it is needed,” Fortis Healthcare Group COO Anil Vinayak told ET.

Doctors feel even if it means additional cost to maintain the infrastructure, it should not be dismantled. “The government should maintain special facilities created during the second wave. Yes, it will mean additional cost, but it will save lives. In hospitals, beds that were converted into makeshift ICU beds could be brought back into the normal fold. But we should be able to convert them back as well as maintain special facilities for the next 12-18 months,” Soin said.